弱点供需，铜价略微背压。

The macro

1.昨天，俄罗斯和乌克兰取得了重要进展。乌克兰同意军事中立和非军事化，俄罗斯军方同意对基辅军队的重大撤出，但双方仍然对乌克兰东部的独立地位进行了重大差异。作者认为乌克兰东独立状况是停战的关键，战争结束仍然很困难。

2. Affected by the news of russia-Ukraine negotiation progress, us and European stock markets rose yesterday, especially European stock markets rose significantly, while gold, us dollar and other safe haven assets fell sharply. Crude oil prices fell sharply during the session, but recovered the decline of the day in the final session. The author believes that the end of the war can make the risk appetite of financial assets recover, but the trend of Russia's main export commodities such as energy is mainly affected by western sanctions against Russia, if the sanctions are not lifted and Europe's direction of reducing Russia's energy imports remains unchanged, the high energy prices will be difficult to change. Since the war has decisively changed security trust between Europe and Russia, this trend seems unlikely to change. Watch for developments in Europe's most important litmus test of Russian energy as the G7 governments reject Russia's demand that "unfriendly countries" buy gas in roubles.

3.标准普尔20楼的房屋价格指数从一年同期从一年增加到19％，而房地产仍然强劲。

4.中国在本季度末增加了反向回购量，以缓解流动性压力。然而，在上海周末蔓延的流行病。积极案件的数量昨天达到了新的高位，严格锁定下的面积继续扩大。结论：俄罗斯 - 乌克兰谈判取得了进展，市场风险偏好大幅返回，但很难解决能源制裁等关键问题，因此我们关注俄罗斯与欧洲之间的比赛购买天然气。国内Covid-19继续扩大，经济问题，短期压力

位置

1. Yesterday, LME inventory increased slightly, spot slightly discount, Asian warehouses continued to increase, reflecting the impact of China's export. However, the war caused the suspension of Russian exports, Russian copper's main export destination Europe may face a supply crunch. In the long run, if sanctions cannot be lifted, Russian copper exports will be blocked and the equilibrium price range will be raised. The impact of recent supply constraints in Europe may be gradually starting to be felt.

2. Shanghai Copper spot premium increased to nearly 400 yuan yesterday, mainly due to the expansion of the containment area caused by the epidemic in Shanghai, the dilemma of warehouse access, sporadic shipments were greatly raised, the actual purchase was very weak, and the premium was artificially high. At present, the epidemic situation is serious in North and East China, logistics is not smooth, and factories purchase very little. In South China, due to the end of epidemic control, production has resumed, but the sharp price rise of natural gas also inhibits the willingness of copper rod factories to start work, and overall consumption is weak. Yesterday fine waste price gap expanded to nearly 2000 yuan, reflecting the actual terminal demand difference. However, in the case of weak supply and demand, the supply interference is more significant. Because of the shutdown of large refineries in North China and the serious adverse price ratio, the refineries vigorously export, and the rapid decline of domestic storage and high water premium, the price support is constantly enhanced, and the overall pattern is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

结论：俄罗斯 - 乌克兰谈判取得了进展，风险偏好已恢复，高通胀预期仍然很强，商品情绪整体偏好，现货供需较弱，实际需求较弱，略有下降。然而，随着国内疫情控制后的4月和消费恢复以来，加强了向上的势头。短期回调买策略，72000强劲的支持。今天，73500-72600。