The United States Inflation Burst Table, Macro Bearish To Promote Copper Prices To Maintain Weakness

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1. The US announced that the CPI grew by 9.1% year on year in June, hitting a 40-year high, compared with 8.6% in the previous estimate and 1.3% in the month on month. The 75 basis point hike in July was largely priced into the market for a long time, but after the data came out the market's expectation of a 100 basis point hike in July rose to 70%, with 2-10 yields inverted by 21 basis points. Inflation is likely to remain high for longer and expectations of more aggressive rate rises this year are rising. Us and European stock markets continued to fall as the logic of high inflation leading to big rate rises and recession dominated risk assets. A bearish

2. From January to June, China's import and export grew by 9.4%. In June, China's import and export grew by 14.3% year on year, with exports up by 22% and imports up by 4.8%. As the European and American economies slowed down in June, enterprises reported weak new export orders, and the growth of external demand is likely to slow down in the second half of the year. However, the overall export situation is still strong.

3.关于流行病，上海增加了19个风险领域，兰州已经实施了全市范围的锁定控制。我们担心流行病和大规模遏制的风险

4. Conclusion: Inflation in the United States exceeded expectations, the expectation of more aggressive interest rate hikes is heating up, coupled with the European energy crisis and economic recession, the macro bearish outlook continues to ferment. Some large cities in China are under lockdown, paying attention to the outbreak, and the bearish outlook continues to worsen

这个点

1. LME inventory decreased by 800 tons, but there was an increase in Inventory in Europe. We should pay attention to whether the demand in Europe and America decreased and the inventory began to flow back. Spot discount of $15, suggesting a slowdown in spot demand, bearish

2. The epidemic, the housing market supply interruption and other macro negative sentiment to promote the ferment of large drops, copper prices follow the fall to a new low, the maintenance of technical weakness. Spot imports to maintain a small loss, customs clearance reduced traders to maintain the premium, yesterday the premium increased to 130 yuan, the price fell after the release of bargain buying, but the overall low level of the country. As a whole, there is a shortage of new orders in the downstream. As the copper price falls to a low level, the mentality of buying up rather than falling is further strengthened. The spot contradiction is not prominent, which has little influence on the price.

3.海关宣布，6月份的铜和铜材料的进口是540,000吨，比上个月增加了70,000吨，这反映了中国实际需求的不断恢复。进口量在7月上半年每月下降，国内库存很可能再次下降。

4. Conclusion: Macro negative news continues to emerge and pressure continues to dominate the trend of commodities. Copper overall off-season new orders are limited under the situation of spot contradictions are not prominent, follow the decline, the price into the low, the downstream buying gradually released, resulting in rhythm fluctuations. The overall macro risk is still large, mainly weak, but continued to fall to low, market instability mentality intensified, volatility significantly increased, not chasing short. Today, 56500-55800.