The Influence Of Nickel Futures Event From The Perspective Of Global Nickel Industry Reform

最近，全球市场中的“LME镍期货活动”导致了风暴。活动后，LME暂停暂停，建立新的限制规则，允许企业移动职位以缓解交付压力，并积极转变长而短的位置。LME在3月16日在伦敦凌晨8点举行的时间内重新开放，但开盘后交易表明该系统没有完全启动和运行。然而，LME试图恢复系统，以保护英国金融业及其百年历史的品牌声誉。

There are many factors contributing to this incident. From the perspective of the global nickel industry transformation, the contradiction between the traditional nickel pricing mechanism and the new development situation is caused by the existing nickel futures contract design can not keep up with the great changes in the global nickel industry.

Global Nickel Industry chain

“推进东方和撤退西部”的模式逐渐呈现

From the perspective of geographical change, from 2001 to 2021, China's share of global primary nickel consumption increased from 4.5% to 56%. China's share of global stainless steel production rose from 3.7% to 56%. Meanwhile, In 2005, China surpassed Japan to become the world's largest nickel consumer and the world's largest stainless steel producer. In 2009, China overtook Russia to become the world's largest producer of primary nickel. In 2021, Indonesia surpassed China to become the largest nickel producer, and the production share of China and India accounts for 60% of the global total. Driven by Chinese enterprises, Indonesia has become the second largest stainless steel producer in the world. In the same year, China accounted for 78% of the global production of ternary precursors. Ternary cathode material production accounted for 60% of the world's total output.

从产品结构变化的角度来看，2012年，初级镍（电解镍板，镍豆，镍珠）生产占51％，二次镍（铁镍，镍铁，烧结镍氧化镍，通用镍）生产占38％，镍盐（硫酸镍，硝酸镍等）生产占11％。2021年，世界主要镍生产的33％将是初级镍，近50％将是镍猪铁，其余部分由常规的镍铁和镍盐组成。在未来的全球镍产品混合中，原发性镍生产的比例将继续下降，而镍矿铁和硫酸镍生产的比例将继续增加。到2025年，预计初级镍生产将占全球初级镍生产的17.7％，而镍猪铁，铁镍和镍盐产量预计将占82.2％的合并。

The main variable that affects nickel price change

During the 41 years from 1980 to 2021, the global nickel price trend can be roughly divided into four stages:

The first stage is before 2001, the United States, Japan and Europe were the main countries and regions of nickel production and consumption at that time, and the pricing subjects and influencing factors had distinct characteristics of The Times.

The second stage is from 2001 to 2010. After China's accession to the WTO, the global commodity market developed rapidly and ushered in the "golden decade". The demand in the market stimulated the rising price, and Chinese nickel enterprises formally entered the global horizon.

在第三阶段,从2011年到2016年,中国,印度nesia and the Philippines dominated the global nickel supply, laterite nickel ore became the "new favorite of the market", and nickel price generally showed a downward trend.

The fourth stage is from 2017 to the global EV development stage. The application of nickel expands new development space and China's influence in the global nickel market increases year by year.

As the global pricing authority of non-ferrous metals, LME has a great influence on market prices. However, it is also a product of The Times when the United States, Japan and Europe are the main producers and consumers. In 2001, China entered the global market, showing enormous influence on both supply and demand. As the global nickel production and consumption center shifts to Asia, especially to China, China has become the biggest variable affecting the nickel market price factor.

从最近的国内现货市场表现，产业链客户反映了基本判决的镍价，国内现货市场交易将影响期货市场。在没有LME报价之前，国内期货交易所正常运作，稳定市场情绪。在LME开业后，国内镍期货和现货市场价格对LME有一定的指导作用。可以说，这种“镍期货事件”不仅反映了中国在期货市场中的定价影响的提高，而且还反映了中国全球镍真正产业链的价格话语权力。

To meet the needs of emerging markets for hedging

The looming

新能源汽车的发展为镍市场带来了巨大的消费期望。根据IEA数据，基于“新能源汽车的全球销售将达到2030年的4600万，全球电量电池安装能力将达到3000克，新能源汽车的渗透率将达到50％”，复合增长率全球初级镍消费量从2021年到2030年的6％，电池行业中镍需求的复合增长率将超过40％。

To meet the huge demand of the battery industry, a lot of money has poured into Indonesia in recent years, making it a hot spot for global nickel investment. But some foreign traditional nickel production enterprises, because of a variety of reasons, the output does not increase but fall. With the sudden rise of the industrial chain at the supply end (nickel pig iron, nickel matte, nickel wet intermediate, nickel matte, nickel sulfate) and the vigorous development of the new energy industry chain at the consumer end (terpolymer precursor, cathode material, battery, automobile), nickel sulfate industry chain enterprises have the demand of maintaining value in response to the fluctuation of nickel price. As a new and rapidly growing market, the number of related enterprises increases year by year, and these enterprises have become the potential customers of major exchanges at home and abroad in recent years. However, at present, the futures exchanges at home and abroad all take electrolytic nickel as the trading target, and no contract is completely suitable for their products. How can exchanges meet the preservation needs of these emerging markets and new customers? The author suggests that futures exchanges at home and abroad should keep pace with The Times and develop new contracts, such as nickel pig iron or nickel sulfate with large circulation.

镍价将来会恢复合理性

London time on March 16, the LME resumed trading, with absolute prices now higher than at home. So, the international and domestic can maintain the past cross-market arbitrage, price convergence model? In what range will nickel price be stable in the future? The author thinks, value decides price, price fluctuates around value. The value of nickel and the general trend of subsequent nickel price can be analyzed at several key points since LME began nickel trading.

1979年，LME开始营业镍。从1980年到2021年，自1980年以来的LME 3个月期货的平均价格为11,310美元/吨。自2001年以来的平均价格为每吨15,798美元;自2005年以来的平均价格（菲律宾，印度尼西亚透明镍矿进入供应终端，中国开始生产镍猪铁）是17,389美元/吨;自2017年以来的平均价格（三通电池进入视线）为13,991美元/吨。从2000年到2021年，2007年的年度价格最高，价格为36,126美元/吨。考虑到通货膨胀和其他因素的影响，2001年至2021年的平均LME三个月期货价格为22,979美元/吨。

在2021年第四季度,镍价格widely expected to move higher and lower in 2022. The author believes that, on the one hand, the new nickel project in Indonesia is mainly to meet the increasing demand for batteries, automobiles and other downstream fields. On the other hand, the United States, South Korea, Europe and other countries and regions increasingly pay attention to battery metal, nickel and other strategic metals there is the possibility of unconventional demand. At this stage, the global nickel market has not yet to squeeze out the high cost of stock stage, the future market should not be too pessimistic.

基于经济周期的20多年的镍价格数据，并考虑到影响镍工业发展的关键因素，提交人认为，2022年的第二季度伦尼价格预计将在30,000美元/吨波动。价格鉴于印度尼西亚的溪流和抑制消费的高价格，下半年，下半年可能跌至22,000美元吨。

New problems under new circumstances

Will the recent occurrence of "nickel futures event" affect the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in futures? What can we learn from the new varieties in the future? The author believes that the impact in the short term is inevitable, but because of the particularity of nickel, for most non-ferrous metal varieties, years of operation experience shows that the current mechanism can basically meet the development requirements of the industry. Of course, relevant enterprises take the initiative to carry out self-examination, nip in the bud is very necessary.

With the proposal of the dual carbon target, the proportion of clean energy in the energy mix has increased, and the development of global electric vehicles has reached an upsurge. In recent years, the market share of nickel, cobalt, lithium and silicon is increasing and there are many participants. The cME has already launched a lithium futures contract, and the London Metal Exchange is also planning to launch some new battery metal contracts. It can be seen that major futures exchanges attach great importance to emerging industries and markets.