Structural Contradictions Are Still Unresolved Nickel Market Later Where To Go.

According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on April 21, estimated U.S. coal production for the second week of April (week ended April 16) was 10.5049 million short tons (9.53 million tons), down 6.52% from the previous week and 2.07% from a year ago.

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In the week, estimated coal production in Wyoming and Montana was 4.9427 million short tons, down 5.64 percent from the previous week and up 0.38 percent from a year earlier, data showed.

For the week, Illinois coal production was estimated at 711,900 short tons, down 5.83 percent from the previous week and up 14.63 percent from a year ago. Appalachian coal production was estimated at 2.873,900 short tons, down 8.58% from the previous week and up 7.85% from a year ago.

行业内部人士说，由于最近在上海及周边地区遇到的物流困难，库存和供应短缺继续支持镍价格，导致现货购买区优质溢价不平衡，电解镍现货溢价显着上涨，但也提升了上海镍板以保持高冲击。

It has been more than a month since the lunni forced position event shocked the global financial market. Shanghai nickel gradually stabilized and recovered from the new record high to 205,000 yuan, and then rose continuously, rising nearly 20% in just one week. Such a fierce roller coaster market made investors "dizzy". Industry insiders said, low inventory and supply shortages continue to give nickel price support, and due to the recent logistics in Shanghai and its surrounding areas, resulting in spot procurement area premium imbalance, electrolytic nickel spot premium significantly rose, but also boost the disk to maintain high shock.

Structural contradictions are still unresolved Shanghai nickel rose sharply

For recent nickel prices soared, non-ferrous new futures analyst about yao told xinhua finance, in the world of pure nickel stocks at historic lows, pure nickel short-term hard to ease shortages background, the domestic since mid-march inside and outside the plate upside down sharply spreads, import losses above ten thousand yuan/ton, plus pure nickel import customs clearance co., LTD., makes the shortage of domestic supply of pure nickel further. "Previously, due to the sharp fluctuation of nickel price and the impact of the epidemic, domestic logistics and transportation were not smooth, and nickel downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, which has been mostly exhausted."

数据显示,近期国内电解镍ckel as a whole to maintain a very low inventory of less than 5000 tons, of which Shanghai inventory accounted for more than 3/4. Besides Shanghai, most of the inventory is concentrated in Jiangsu province, which has been destocking recently.

根据SMM的调查，由于中国南部的流行病，仍然很难采购商品并运输它们。下游工厂通常从北部仓库采购商品，导致中国北部的纯镍供应不足，并普遍增加现货溢价。研究报告中的创始人中级期货指出，区域折扣不平衡加剧了镍的供应张力，叠加了国内电解镍的产量，因此，现货溢价以保持强烈的状况。同时，物流不是光滑的，而是用于镍生铁的生产和原材料运输等，这是供求干扰的形成。在后期，如果上海和其他地方的流行状况有所改善，则可以在一定程度上缓解中国纯镍供应的短缺。但是，仍然需要通过增加进口来解决纯镍供应的大幅短缺。

In addition, Li Yaoyao also said that last week the country took measures to improve the domestic transportation, downstream replenishment expectations are strong, coupled with domestic social finance data exceeded expectations, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and a series of good news, making the market macro sentiment warming, nickel prices also climbed sharply.

Lunni限制事件的影响仍在徘徊

LME nickel trading has not returned to normal, although the lune incident has come to an end. In addition to the trading hours have not fully recovered, volume has also shrunk substantially. "When Shanghai nickel fluctuates sharply, lunni only fluctuates within a narrow range of 33,000 yuan/ton and has lost its role as a pricing benchmark." About yao, according to the analysis of electrolytic nickel and nickel products imported in LME prices as a valuation benchmark, and nickel trading back to normal and some overseas companies accept Shanghai nickel as a valuation benchmark all will take time, nickel and Shanghai nickel fluctuations are not synchronized, and short-term will be a certain influence on electrolytic nickel and nickel products' import, causing domestic nickel element in short supply.

非有产策略和企业风险管理研究所高级研究员Zhou Weigang说，当前的镍价格游戏更加激烈。从LME位置和点数据中，最近几个月和下个月的短职位集中度仍然很高，相应的长位置主要集中在一个或两个交易对手的手中。同时，仓库订单的集中度很高，在现货资源短缺的条件下，迫使短职位的条件仍然存在。

基本面不长期不支持镍价格持续很高

On the supply side, According to Li Yaoyao, with the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore shipments will gradually increase, and domestic nickel and iron mills are expected to continue to increase output driven by high profits. In addition, driven by high profits, the output of new nickel projects in Indonesia is gradually released, and the increase of high nickel matte production will alleviate the shortage of nickel bean supply. According to the data of Chinese customs, the import of nickel matte (high nickel matte) in China in March was 10,500 tons, an increase of 247% from the previous month and 130% from the same period last year. The global nickel supply shortage is expected to improve in the second quarter from the first.

相反，需求方面，在高镍的压力下，镍下游需求正面临收缩。创始人的期货表示，在当前原材料端的压缩下，由于利润损失和积极的生产削减而导致的镍盐厂，弱势消费被动减少，市场下滑。一些成本较高的盐厂决定由于利润倒转而暂停生产。而且前驱动工厂还受到三个电池需求减少的影响，减少生产规模也相对较大。目前，镍盐的价格接受仍然很难大幅上涨。维修过程或主要用于镍盐生末端优惠。此外，由于镍豆溶解利润目前处于更严重的倒置状态，因此镍豆的需求非常薄弱。同时，不锈钢市场交易氛围相对较轻。由于物流的流行限制，最近几周不锈钢库存继续积累，造成了不锈钢价格的一定压力，而原材料的高成本使300系列不锈钢生产损失。4月，钢铁厂有可能改用200和400系列的生产。

总体而言，整个镍市场在今年上半年仍处于供应赤字状态，库存较低和持续的销售期望是对价格的重要支持。下半年，随着镍哑光的逐渐应用，镍供应和需求结构有望逆转。从长远来看，基本面不足以支持镍价格继续升高，预计镍价格将遵循或高范围冲击运行。

在2022年的前16周中，预计美国煤炭产量为1.72亿吨，比去年同期1.64亿吨增长4.9％。

During the week, 61,550 carloads of coal were carried by rail in the United States, down 4,175 carloads from the previous week and 50 carloads from a year ago. So far this year, 987,900 carloads of coal have been transported, up 9 percent year-on-year.