Short-term Attention To Macro Factors Change Nickel Hedge Sentiment Volatility Repeated

Nickel futures closed down, the main warehouse moved to 2202, closed at 147790, down 0.42%.

. Macro and industry information

1. Macro information:

The number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world is still on the rise, with daily new cases approaching the peak level of the last round of the epidemic, and the spread of the omicron mutant strain in some countries and regions, increasing pressure on China to prevent imported COVID-19 cases, Said Mi Feng, spokesman for the National Health Commission (NHC) at a press conference under the Joint prevention and control mechanism of The State Council on Wednesday.

Since November, most of China's new local confirmed cases have been concentrated in border and port cities. China's official manufacturing PMI50.1 in November, back into expansionary territory, the price index fell sharply. China's official non-manufacturing PMI edged back to 52.3 in November.

2. Philippine nickel production up 29% in first three quarters:

在2021年的前三个季度中，菲律宾镍直接货物的数量和价值分别增加了29％和67％，从253,204吨的276.6亿p276.6亿吨增加到460.5亿吨，价值325,848吨，镍含量为325,848吨包括跨国公司和SCOX在内的产品。

3.DISER analyzed that the global nickel demand will increase in the future battery industry as the main driving force of consumption growth:

According to the Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (DISER) report, the global consumption of finished nickel will reach 2.7 million tons in 2021, an increase of 15%. In 2022 and 2023, it will reach 2.9 million tons and 3 million tons respectively.

On the other hand, DISER said the electric vehicle industry is booming and expects the battery industry to be the main driver of nickel consumption growth in the future.

Nickel demand is expected to increase in the future as ongoing decarbonization efforts are combined with accelerated government demand for electric vehicles to stimulate and offset the impact of the pandemic.

Trading strategies

LME nickel price affected adjustment, but high premium water still exists, low inventory support continues, but the epidemic uncertainty continues to affect the bulk performance. Short-term attention to macro factors change, hedge sentiment volatility repeated. Hu Ni noted that if the repair of 150,000 yuan continued to be weak, the pre-regression consolidation area (138000-150,000) continued to fluctuate.

For now, uncertainty about the impact of the new strain is causing panic, and increased lockdowns are affecting economic recovery expectations. Non-ferrous metals still need to wait for the release of panic completely