上海镍的价格下跌37.03％镍为什么会失利？

选择终端显示，上海镍期货的主要合同已从3月的270,000元/吨降至7月的170,000元/吨的最低点，累计下降量达到37.03％。专家分析，海外镍丰富的区域，以加快生产，下游不锈钢市场需求下降，新的能量电池技术替代品以及其他因素，导致当前的镍价格“不受欢迎”，镍斑和期货将进一步下降。

Capacity release eased nickel prices

从1月到今年3月,上海镍futures main contract once out of the rising market, from the low of 150,000 yuan/ton in January to the high of 270,000 yuan/ton in March, a cumulative increase of 80%, LME03 contract also increased greatly. The market generally believes that geopolitical conflicts, inflation, logistics, trading mechanism loopholes and other factors jointly promote nickel prices. And the recent nickel futures and spot prices all the way down, in addition to Shanghai nickel futures performance is not good, Yangtze Nonferrous metal net reported on July 4, the national average price of nickel spot has fallen to 183000 yuan/ton, the decline and Shanghai nickel futures main contract basic equivalent. It is widely believed in the market that interest rate hikes in developed countries, long-term capacity release, weak demand for stainless steel downstream, new energy battery circuit technology switch and other factors have a certain pressure on nickel prices.

记者发现，国内A-Share企业积极投入海外生产，预计明年将投入大量冶炼能力。自今年以来，就有中国股票，Shengtun Mining，Huayou Cobalt行业和其他A股份上市公司宣布了印度尼西亚镍冶炼项目的进展。WEI股票向其中提议的特定物品，通过将股票发行至66.8亿元而筹集的资金总额，印度尼西亚的基地，后来的镍矿石矿石冶炼高级镍项目，描述了6吨，西吉济岛基地8描述广西南部基地中的大量硫酸盐项目描述了大量的高级镍项目，Guizhou Mizar基础200000吨磷酸铁项目的年度产量和增加的流动性。Shengtun Mining计划在印度尼西亚投资和建立一个镍哑光项目，其年产量为40,000吨。Huayou Co.，Ltd。的子公司Huayue Co.，Ltd。已完成印度尼西亚设备的安装和调试，并成功生产了镍金属，其主要性能指标是合格的。陶氏广东·贾纳（Dow Guangdong Jana）在印度尼西亚投资了镍矿物和矿石的大型贸易。

Su Bin, head of Caixin Futures Investment Service Center, told reporters, "Indonesia is a nickel-rich country, and there are preferential and encouraging policies for overseas enterprises to invest in Indonesia, especially for large projects. In the past two years, the number of A-share listed companies investing in nickel mining, smelting, and entrepot trade in Indonesia has increased, which objectively increased the future nickel spot supply and moderated the nickel futures price to some extent."

下游松弛供应超出了需求

在镍产业链扩展的上游同时，对于不锈钢，由下游镍企业代表的三元锂电池遇到了需求“可变”。

Su Bin told reporters to introduce the current situation of the nickel market, "due to repeated outbreaks, domestic and international stainless steel enterprises capacity supply exceeds demand, nickel demand is not prosperous. Previously, the downstream enterprises actively using nickel are mainly new energy enterprises, especially those focusing on high-nickel batteries. The typical products of the high-nickel battery technology route are ternary lithium batteries and nickel-metal hydride batteries. "There are a number of variables in the path of ternary lithium batteries that are slowing down nickel consumption."

一位经纪分析师同意上述视图，在高镍电池市场上保持谨慎的态度：“三元锂电池的主要缺点是热控制的问题，现在磷酸锂电池电池技术路线雷电，已经有了重大的替代。效果。在今年3月发布的推广和应用新能源车辆的推荐模型目录中，磷酸锂电池型号的比例高达75％，而Terum的市场份额则达到75％- lithium电池已被进一步挤压。但是，由于其量较大，能量密度低，充电和放电时间较小，传统的镍金属电池逐渐缩小。镍期货和现货价格进一步下降之前的时间问题。”

However, he added, "The product that has a good chance of driving nickel demand in the long term is probably Tesla's 4680 cylindrical battery, which is high nickel like the ternary lithium battery. This product has a corresponding solution to the thermal runaway problem of ternary lithium batteries. If mass production and technical improvement are realized, it may regain some market share from the technological route of lithium iron phosphate batteries. At present, domestic ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxun High-tech, Penghui Energy, Yahua Group, and international LG New Energy, Panasonic, Samsung SDI and other layout of 4680 cylinder battery track. However, 4680 large cylindrical battery from the downstream enterprises through the verification, to obtain the general acceptance of the market, and then can compete with lithium iron phosphate battery, it is not a short time."