May 26, 2022
On The afternoon of May 24, Australian lithium miner Pilbara completed its second auction of lithium concentrate this year, closing at $5,955 / tonne FOB. The auction of ore volume of 5000 tons (±10%), concentrate grade 5.5%, scheduled June 15 - July 15 delivery. According to the freight cost of $90, the current exchange rate of 6.65, processing cost of 30,000 yuan, the transaction price is equivalent to about 420,000 yuan per ton of lithium carbonate.
At the Pilbara's first auction of the year on April 27, lithium concentrate fetched $5,650 a tonne, up about 5 per cent. In July 2021, the first of three auctions held in the Pilbara last year fetched $1,250 per ton, but the price rose 4.7 times as the market price of lithium carbonate rose.Recent battery-grade lithium carbonate price from 500,000 yuan per ton slightly back, currently about 460,000 tons, the Pilbara lithium concentrate auction price although the increase is limited, but it can also be said to lift the lithium carbonate cost lower limit again. Similar to the third auction last year, it is difficult to estimate whether the limited increase could mark an inflection point in lithium carbonate prices. A few days ago, the market attention snowe mining equity auction to the starting price of nearly 600 times the transaction, can see the hot lithium resources.
It is reported that, on average, every production of a new energy vehicle needs to use 23.4-31.0kg lithium carbonate, and the price of lithium carbonate increases by 10 times, making the raw material cost of power battery rise by 10,000-14,000 yuan. As the downstream lithium carbonate market, since this year, the new energy vehicle plate continued to correction, the highest once down 36%. From the point of view of affecting the profitability of enterprises in the lower reaches, lithium prices soared or one of the main factors affecting the plate callback. Conversely, it is difficult to predict whether the downstream industry may bring backbiting to the upstream.
In the face of soaring lithium prices, downstream enterprises are naturally unwilling to work for the upstream mining industry, but also to the upstream layout of the impulse. Different institutions and researchers have different ideas about what prices should do next, but perhaps no one has the gift of being wise beforehand. Instead of elaborate analysis and grand narratives, respect the market and think of Jesse Livermore's dictation that the market is never wrong when opinions are wrong.
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