Production Cuts Are Difficult To Fight Weak Consumption, Aluminum Prices Weak Shock.

On Thursday, Shanghai Aluminum main 2302 contract did not further lower interval shock, opened 18730 yuan/ton, high 18785 yuan/ton, closed 18685 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton, -1.35%. Overnight Shanghai aluminum range shock. Lun aluminum closed up $2411.5 / ton, up 1.54%.

Spot Yangtze River average price 18700 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton, on the month -20 yuan/ton. Southern Reserve spot average price 18700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton, on the month -25 yuan/ton. Brush goods performance is slightly better than yesterday, but the goods still wait and see, the deal is weak. According to my Nonferrous data, the social inventory of aluminum ingots on December 29 was 490,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the social inventory of aluminum rods was 80,000 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons compared with last week.

On the macro front, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to 225,000 last week, in line with market expectations. The number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose to 1.7 million in the week ended Dec. 17, the highest level since early February. The national fiscal work video conference stressed that in 2023, the proactive fiscal policy will be more effective and play a more direct and effective role.

Industry news, Guizhou region issued a notice of power limit in mid-December, requiring all electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the province to temporarily reduce the total scale of 700,000 kW. According to the document, the proportion of electrolytic aluminum pressure load in Guizhou is as high as 31%. On December 28, Guizhou upgraded the power rationing again, requiring a total scale of 300,000 kW to be removed from the tank, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity.

Guizhou supply disturbance to upgrade, two production capacity total impact of about 500,000 tons, but the overall supply disturbance impact magnitude is still small, the supply and accumulation of benefits are expected to be more limited, aluminum price yesterday limited response to the news. Inventory convenience yesterday aluminum ingot inventory continued to accumulate, according to the current consumption performance and supply situation, is expected to continue to accumulate. Spot market buyers lack of confidence in the transaction into the discount, aluminum price shock weak.