Political Unrest in Guinea Pushed Global Aluminum Prices To $3,200, Goldman Sachs Said

International aluminium prices hit their highest level since 2011 on Monday amid political unrest in Guinea as investors fretted about the supply outlook.

Related mining companies received funding, with Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company, up 5 per cent to break 2008 highs, and Rusal up more than 14 per cent to a record high.

据闭路电视新闻报道，几内亚在第五次当地军事政变上，是康纳克里的首都几场激烈的枪战。几内亚的特种部队冲进了总统宫殿，并占领了国家广播电视台。他们在电视讲话中宣布拘留阿尔法·康德总统，宪法的废除，政府的解散，封闭边界，成立了国家团结与发展委员会以及接管权力。

事件发生后,联合国、非洲n Union (AU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and other international organizations issued a statement condemning any attempt to take over the government by force and demanding The immediate release of Conte. On September 6, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin held a regular press conference and said that China is closely following the situation in Guinea and has taken note of relevant statements made by the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). China opposes the coup attempt to seize power and calls for the immediate release of President Conte. We call on all parties to remain calm and exercise restraint, bear in mind the fundamental interests of guinea and its people, resolve relevant issues through dialogue and consultation and safeguard its domestic peace and stability.

Bauxite is the source of Guinea's economy

Bauxite, which is used to produce alumina and is a key raw material for smelting aluminum ingots, rose to a 10-year high of $2,782 a tonne in Asian trading Friday and remained volatile. "Aluminium is one of the most fundamentally positive industrial metals, up almost 50 per cent this year. Driven by strong global demand growth, the news from Guinea is likely to further increase the gap through rising supply threats." Saxo Bank's team said in a report released Monday.

The mineral-rich West African nation of Guinea has the world's largest bauxite reserves and is the world's second largest producer. The bauxite business is a key pillar of its economy and a major foreign exchange earner. Last year, 88 million tons of bauxite were produced, according to the country's mining ministry. Good resource conditions also attract a large number of overseas investment. Media statistics show that as of the first half of 2021, among the bauxite projects already in operation in Guinea, Winning Alliance accounts for 35.91%, Alcoa for 20.08%, Chinalco for 15.15%, Emirates Aluminum for 13.57%, Rusal for 6.75%, Henan International for 4.49%, Arufa for 1.77%, State Power Corporation for 1.19%. Double aluminum union accounted for 1.09%.

What impact will it have on exports

据《外国媒体》报道，政变的负责人马马迪·杜莫布亚上校周一宣布，该矿山的简短宵禁已被取消。鲍勃·亚当（Bob Adam）写道：“政变不太可能对出口产生任何重大的短期影响，这通常是9月份周期的最低点，任何政府都希望确保未来的矿井收入和投资不受影响。”，几内亚铝土矿行业的专家。

中国商业新闻指出，没有当地生产商报告对其生产业务的任何重大影响。Chinalco是中国最大的铝冶炼厂的上市单位，早些时候说，其所有运营，包括几内亚的运营都正常运营。标准普尔全球评级报告说，Chinalco应该从全球对工业金属的强劲需求中受益。高铝价将在2021 - 2022年为10％-11％的利润率，在2020年利息，税收，折旧和摊销前的利润率为8.1％。

Many institutions continue to see more short-term upward trend in aluminum prices. Goldman sachs expects futures prices to rise further as the outlook for global supply is likely to worsen. The Wall Street firm raised its target price for aluminium futures over the next 12 months to $3,200 a tonne.

朱利叶斯·贝尔（Julius Baer）研究负责人卡斯滕·梅克（Carsten Menke）引用了一些环境政策引起的供应方面问题，这增加了乐观。“尽管当前的碳中立性预期对铝的影响可能被夸大了，而且价格与基本面不一致，但近期价格风险仍然偏向上升。”他说。