11月01日，2020年
当地时间今天(10月28日)，菲律宾最大的镍矿生产商和出口商亚洲镍业表示，在本轮新冠疫情之后，该公司已暂停其一家矿山的运营。
As a containment measure, work at the Hinatuan mine in the nickel center of the Caraga region under Nickel Asia has been suspended on Tuesday, and the suspension will continue until November 10. The mine’s output accounts for 11% of the total ore sales of Nickel Asia. Subsequently, Shanghai nickel futures soared by more than 5% and are now at 125,280 yuan/ton, a new high since December 18 last year.
菲律宾是我国主要的镍矿石进口国。中信证券提醒，除受停牌影响外，菲律宾的雨季为10月至次年3月。随着雨季的临近，镍矿的供应将大幅下降，而目前国内库存处于历史低点，镍矿的紧张局势将加剧。
它还提到，最近印度尼西亚镍铁生产的稳步增长可能对国内供应产生影响;此后，不锈钢消费的淡季将到来，需求将减弱。但是，由于房地产周期和化学周期，需求下降可能是有限的;由于不锈钢产量的下降和印尼镍铁的影响，国内镍铁产量将会减少。
财通证券还提醒说，继马斯克在特斯拉电池日宣布将充分利用镍，将钴降至零之后，特斯拉有望成为行业的风标，引领未来高镍阴极材料的工艺。未来十年，镍将成为最有前途的电池金属。电池用镍的增加已成为主要动力，预计2030年电池用镍的比例将从3%显著增加到37%。
Previously, there were two main factors supporting nickel prices. One was the support of upstream nickel ore prices. On the whole, the tradable supply of nickel ore market was still relatively scarce, and negotiated prices remained high. The other is the market’s optimistic expectations for demand. Due to the better sales of new energy vehicles, the market’s demand expectations have been rising.
According to CITIC Securities research, nickel ore is currently mainly concentrated in the hands of large domestic ferronickel companies. With the tension of nickel ore, the bargaining power of top ferronickel companies will significantly increase, and the game between stainless steel and ferronickel companies will become more intense.
Specific to the investment targets, the A-share nickel targets are as follows, including Shengtun Mining, Western Mining, Hezong Technology, Qingdao Zhongcheng, and Pengxin Resources.
Among them, according to Li Shuaihua, an analyst of Caitong Securities' non-ferrous team, with the commissioning of Shengtun Mining's nickel production line in Indonesia, the production line may contribute more than 30% of Shengtun Mining's profits next year. The target is expected to play a leading role in the industry.
Institutions are bullish on Shanghai nickel futures
菲律宾最大的镍矿生产商和出口商亚洲镍业(Nickel Asia)周三(10月28日)表示，在新冠疫情爆发后，该公司已暂停四家镍矿之一的运营，直至11月10日。
It is the Hinatuan mine that has suspended operations. 19 employees here have tested positive for COVID-19.
According to the reporter's understanding, the Hinatuan mine is located in Surigao del Norte, the Philippines. Last year's output accounted for 11% of Nickel Asia's total ore sales. The Philippines is an alternative supply source of nickel ore in China. Previously, China mainly relied on high-grade nickel ore from Indonesia. However, as Indonesia banned the export of nickel ore, the Philippines became China’s largest source of nickel ore imports.
Affected by the above news, on October 28, Shanghai nickel futures rose sharply during the intraday session, with an increase of more than 5.13% at one time. In the one and a half months since it hit a 10-month high on September 3, Shanghai nickel futures have moved out of the standard V-shaped trend. After losing the 120,000 points mark, the futures price fell to the bottom of the V-shaped trough on September 22. Since then, it fluctuated higher, and the post-holiday gains intensified, until the 120,000 point mark was re-entered. As of 14:23 today, Shanghai nickel hit a new high of 125,140 yuan/ton.
Philippines suspended a mine operation
Worldometers real-time statistics show that as of 02:32 on October 28, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the Philippines reached 370,000, with 1524 new cases; the number of deaths increased from 14 to 7053.
The increasing number of cases has affected the production and operation of some companies. Yangtze River Futures analyst Lei Lianhua told the China Times reporter that Nickel Asia, the largest nickel ore producer and exporter in the Philippines, has suspended the company's Hinatuan mine, located in the nickel center of the Caraga region.
It is reported that the company has four mines, which account for about half of the Philippine nickel ore output.
At present, the second outbreak of new coronary pneumonia is showing obvious momentum. Whether the epidemic will have a deeper and broader impact on the supply side of the nickel industry chain is something more to worry about. According to Nickel Asia's news, the mine will resume necessary non-mining and support activities after 14 days of suspension of production, and subsequent large-scale inspections will be conducted on the mining area before deciding whether to proceed.
According to the reporter, the Philippines is an alternative source of nickel ore for China. Previously, China mainly relied on high-grade nickel ore from Indonesia. However, as Indonesia banned the export of nickel ore, the Philippines became China’s largest source of nickel ore imports.
According to the latest September data, China imported 6.209 million tons of nickel ore and its concentrate, a significant increase of 65.76% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%. Among them, 5.488 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, an increase of 62.17% month-on-month and an increase of 25.35% year-on-year. It can be seen that the Philippines' nickel ore accounts for 88% of the total imports.
