Indonesia Nickel Iron Capacity Accelerated Shanghai Nickel Trend Is Still On The Rebound Short

雨季是在菲律宾和倪ckel mines are starting to ship in large quantities, while nickel and iron production in Indonesia is accelerating. China's laterite nickel mine arrivals have continued to improve since April, with the weekly average nickel mine arrivals at major ports rising to 891,400 tons in June from 473,600 tons in April, according to SMM data. Since 2021, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production will increase at the pace of 0.2 to 0.3 thousand metal tons per month, and Indonesia's capacity delivery will continue in the future.

With the implementation of the reduction of steel production in June and July, the social inventory pressure of 300 series stainless steel is reduced, but the production is still in the loss, pay attention to the impact on production scheduling after the profit recovery driven by price. The prospect of new energy vehicles continues to improve, but considering the economy of different nickel sulfate processes, nickel beans accounted for a significant contraction.

Institutional point of view

Hawkish signals from the European Central Bank reaffirmed its interest rate hike plan strengthened the euro, while recent poor US economic data and some price in the Fed rate hike caused the DOLLAR index to retreat from high levels. Fundamentally, the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines has started to recover, and the output of domestic refineries is expected to keep growing, but the inventory of nickel ore has not increased as expected. A sharp increase in Indonesia's nickel exports could ease the domestic supply squeeze. Downstream stainless steel profit contraction production decreased slightly, the impact on demand began to appear; However, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the demand for new energy shows a positive trend. In the near future, the global nickel market inventory turned down again, nickel prices are expected to stop falling up. Technically, NI2207 contract shadow Yang line market uncertain, 1 hour MACD index upward. Operation, it is recommended to do more light warehouse.

Nickel rose 0.74% on Tuesday, while stainless steel rose nearly 2%. Nickel prices to stop the rise mainly because of the previous fall, stainless steel is driven by spot futures prices. Last weekend foshan stainless steel market, Castle Peak agent joint price, Monday morning delong's price is also higher than last Friday. Fundamentals: According to the statistics of China Customs, China's refined nickel imports in May 2022 were 6553.551 tons, down by 5513 tons, or 45.69%; Year-on-year decrease of 11,459 tons, a decrease of 63.62%. Strategically, nickel and stainless steel or continue to decline, nickel or relatively larger, the target of 190 thousand yuan per ton.