Global Explicit Inventory Continues To Decline, Copper Prices Still Have A Strong Momentum.

Since September, the global copper market explicit inventory shows a rapid trend. Copper stocks on the world's three largest exchanges (Shanghai Futures Exchange, New York Mercantile Exchange and London Metal Exchange) totaled 190, 000 tonnes as of November 12, down 50% from the end of August. The bulk of the decline, about 154,000 tonnes, came from the London Metal Exchange.

On October 15, LME copper warehouse orders fell to 14,150 tons, the lowest level since 1998. On October 18, LME spot premium for March electronic trade reached a record high of $1103.5 / ton, and futures also pushed above $10,000 / ton again.

Later, due to power cuts in many places in China, as well as the cooling of the real estate market, coupled with the Federal Reserve to tighten liquidity, copper prices returned to the previous oscillating platform. However, as the early bearish factors abate and global explicit inventories continue to fall, copper prices may strengthen again.

Domestic copper city demand margin improvement

In November, power rationing was almost completely lifted in areas with concentrated downstream processing capacity, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises increased continuously. Near the end of the year, with the acceleration and efficiency of local special bonds, investment in infrastructure may be strengthened. According to SMM statistics, since November, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the four major consumer areas of copper social inventory continued to decline. As of November 12, the total inventory of the four regions was only 79,100 tons, down 163,400 tons from the same period last year. Recently, the arrival of domestic imports is relatively low, while the export is increasing, and the market rumor does not sell stocks this month, social inventory is expected to continue to decline in this month.

Since November, the financing environment of real estate enterprises has improved, the property market has stabilized, market confidence has continued to recover, and the market's concern about debt default of mainland real estate enterprises has decreased.