惠誉：预计全球铜产量将在未来几年内保持强劲

Market analyst Fitch Solutions, in its latest industry report, said it was bullish on higher copper prices and demand for copper in the medium to long term, and global copper production is expected to remain strong in the coming years as many new projects and expansions come online.

惠誉预测，全球铜产量将在2022年至2031年间平均每年2.8％增长，年产量从2022年的2460万吨的预测增加到2031年的3100万吨。

Leading project developers are mainly large mining companies, including BHP Billiton and Teck Resources, which have been drawn to Chile, the world's largest copper producer, because of its infrastructure and social stability.

惠誉预计2022 global copper production Growth is driven by an increase in BHP's Spence Growth Option project.

截至2022年5月，Spence项目逐渐提高容量，预计Spence在其运营的前四年中预计平均铜生产300,000吨/Y。

2021年以上的增长也将受益于全球最大的铜矿Escondida的项目增加和一些运营重新激活。惠誉预计由于目前的劳动力水平，到2022财政年度（截至2022年6月）的产出将比平常低。

Meanwhile, Tektronk Resources' Qubrada Blanca Phase II project is expected to begin production in the second half of 2022. The development of the project was delayed for five to six months due to the pandemic and has now been restarted. The company estimates copper production for the first five years will average 286,000 tonnes per year. Tektronix is also considering the third phase of the project, which could significantly increase capacity in the long term.

2021年5月，智利最大的铜生产商Codelco宣布已准备好开始在13.8亿美元的Rajo Inca项目上建设。通过该项目，该公司打算对其萨尔瓦多矿山进行大修，并将矿山的寿命延长47年。

Codelco reports that it plans to reach 90,000 tons of production in the first half of 2023. The project is part of Codelco's 10-year, $40 billion plan to upgrade aging mines; Fitch noted that the move will contribute to the expected growth in copper production.

The U.S. has a high ratio of new projects (39) to in-production projects (15), which meets the size criteria of Fitch's global mining database, and Fitch analysts say many key projects are likely to come on stream before 2031.

Copper production growth is likely to accelerate in the five years 2027 to 2031 as these projects expand and other new projects come on stream, Fitch said, although it noted that the current Chilean government's environmental review of projects could cause some investment to be delayed.

Fitch predicts that optimism about copper prices will encourage U.S. project companies to push ahead with projects.

Fitch expects copper prices to rise over the next few years because of positive demand prospects. As prices rise, the economics of copper mining projects will become more attractive to investors, who in some cases will also face relatively high production costs.

However, the mining industry found that the recent period of time, copper prices continued to decline, as of July 11 afternoon close: Shanghai copper closed 58480 yuan/ton, down 2.03%; LEM Copper was last quoted at $7,649 / ton, down 2.69%. Overall bearish sentiment is evident, with copper prices down more than 20% since the beginning of June.