2020年9月15日
英国石油公司今天发布了《2020年世界能源展望》报告，称全球能源需求至少在2050年之前的一段时间内将继续增长。同时，能源需求结构将发生根本性变化，化石能源比重继续下降，可再生能源比重继续上升，电气化作用更加突出。
随着世界低碳发展的不断深化，全球能源系统的结构将经历根本调整，这将变得更加多样化，通过客户需求推动，不同燃料品种之间的竞争将变得更加激烈。随着世界性的电气化进展的继续，能源消耗将从化石燃料转向可再生能源，这将迅速增长。
该报告对未来三十年来世界能源模式的变化提供了基本判断：第一，能源需求将继续增长。随着新兴国家的持续繁荣，以及改善其生活水平，全球能源需求将继续增长。在未来三十年中，能源需求将继续发展，到2050年，它将增加约25％。在快速过渡的背景下，由于能源效率的提高，主要能量需求将达到其峰值，并在未来十年内保持稳定。其次，全球能源结构经历了根本调整，低碳转型将带来更多样化的能量结构。随着世界上的电气化进展，全球能源系统中石油，天然气和煤炭的份额将以加速的速度降低，而可再生能源的份额将增加。到2050年，原发性能源的油，天然气和煤的比例将从2018年的85％下降至65％-20％，可再生能源将增加到20％-60％。在未来三十年中，石油需求将显示下行趋势，它将在20世纪20年代初期持续稳定。在快速的能源转型趋势下，石油需求不会完全恢复到新冠肺炎疫情之前的水平。石油需求下降是通过效率的不断提高和道路交通电流的推动。 All oil used in the transportation sector will peak in the mid to late 2020s. In 2050, the proportion of oil in transportation energy will rise from 90% in 2018. At the same time, the electrification of road transportation will also accelerate the reduction of oil demand. Natural gas demand will continue to grow in the next three decades. Its growth resilience stems from widespread global demand and continuously growing global supply. The report predicts that global natural gas demand will peak in the mid-2030s and mid-1920s, and will drop to 2018 levels and one-third lower than 2018 levels by 2050. The report proposes that natural gas has two potentially important roles in the low-carbon transition of the energy system: On the one hand, in developing countries with rapid economic growth, the growth rate of renewable and other non-fossil energy sources in these countries is insufficient to replace coal demand. Therefore, the use of natural gas can reduce the use of coal; on the other hand, natural gas combined with CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage) technology can achieve zero or near-zero carbon power generation. Renewable energy is the fastest growing energy source in the next 30 years. The development cost of wind and solar power generation continues to decrease, and to lead the development of renewable energy, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of renewable energy installed capacity. The decarbonization of the energy system has led to a continuous increase in the electrification level of terminal energy use. In the process of substantial decarbonization of the energy system, the role of hydrogen energy and bioenergy has become increasingly prominent. Reducing the use of traditional fossil energy has also promoted the development of bioenergy, including liquid biofuels mainly used in transportation, biomethane to replace natural gas, and biomass energy mainly used in the power industry.
报告还指出，为了实现全球碳排放的快速和可持续减少，有必要实施一系列政策措施，包括大幅提高碳价格，以促进能源消费者行为和偏好的变化。同时，我们必须更加关注能源结构调整带来的较高经济成本和动荡代价。
