疯狂的价格预期ed To STOP

For a period of time in the future, enterprises and institutions believe that copper prices will face a strong reality, weak expectations of the contradictory pattern, copper prices are expected to return to the early platform wide shock collation.

Fundamentals, spot is still tight. Output at Domestic smelters fell below 800,000 tons to 789,000 tons in October for the first time this year due to power cuts, cold shortages and maintenance, according to most companies and institutions. At the same time, due to the LME 0~3 liter water remains high after the National Holiday, many domestic copper smelters will increase export efforts in the fourth quarter. Currently, relevant export matters are in an orderly way, some smelters electrolytic copper has been offshore, and the overall inventory once again shows the trend of decline.

"Although copper consumption performance bright spot all have no, but the short-term supply side disturbance inventory is difficult to see significant growth, domestic disk base structure is difficult to see the potential of narrowing." Mr Ye said. However, "weak expectations" will still dominate the subsequent copper price, that is, the low global inventory is more of a short-term problem. In the context of the global epidemic, shipping logistics and containers are affected to varying degrees, and a large number of industrial and processed products are stuck in ports, resulting in the increase of global invisible inventory. But the global shipping crunch is expected to ease in the first quarter of next year as vaccines become more widely available, reducing the market's overhang of hidden stocks.

明年，各行各业的铜价格的看法更加理性，而间隔冲击将是主要线路。就全球宏观经济而言，美国对流动性收缩的期望得到了加强，对美元的欣赏，以美元条款的绝对价格下降，但没有贬低美国货币的贬值，限制了购买需求，还限制需求。

In addition, high inflation figures have left the market gripped by fears of economic "stagflation". The US consumer price index (CPI), released last week, rose 6.2% in October from a year earlier, beating expectations of 5.8% and 5.4%. It was the highest since November 1990. Joe Perry, senior economist at City Index, told reporters that preliminary data from the University of Michigan Consumer Reports showed consumer confidence at its lowest point in a decade.

The key is that the pattern of copper concentrate tension will gradually ease next year. China already accounts for half of the world's copper consumption, but the gap with its own supply of electrolytic copper has not been effectively fixed, meaning China needs to import a large amount of electrolytic copper from overseas every year, Mr. Ye told reporters. Over the past decade, China's self-sufficiency in copper concentrate has continued to decline and the imbalance between supply and demand has gradually deepened. China's self-sufficiency in copper concentrate has decreased from 40% in 2010 to 23.5% in 2021. To feed China's copper consumption, the country relies heavily on overseas raw materials. However, copper concentrate may turn surplus in 2022.

此外，海外需求也可能会放缓，欧洲和美国发达国家的制造业逐渐恢复，再加上海运的上升，出口势头减弱；国内需求，除了电子工业，新能源，没有明显的亮点。

国内铜的消耗也有望减弱。SMM预测：“自今年5月，新建筑和建成房地产的冷却，住房猜测并非严格控制，房地产从长远来看都无法支持铜的消耗。今年的第四季度开始显示压力。核心的短缺也会影响汽车的生产和家用电器的影响。

但是，从长远来看，新的能源需求仍然是支持铜价，电动汽车，光伏和其他主要驱动因素的主要原因。

Mo Ke, founder and CEO of Zhenli Research, told reporters that there are two possible trends in the demand for electric vehicles next year -- one is likely to buy more and more, to stimulate the early release of demand; Second, higher prices are likely to affect demand. The first is more likely to happen. Technological advances in electric vehicle applications will accelerate next year, spurred by high costs.