Copper Price Rebound Trend May Slow

Last week copper price strong operation, price performance slightly more than expected, once close to the 63000 mark, the price continues to rebound and macro sentiment continues to ease, the fundamentals of multi-factor speculation.

Looking back, at the macro level, the endogenous inflation in the United States is still quite strong, the inflation level of 8.5% is still a historical high, the Federal Reserve will not adjust the interest rate ceiling target, the probability of short-term interest rate increase of 50BP has boosted risk sentiment, but it is not the switch and reversal of macro trading logic. The global manufacturing sector is still under pressure and weak overseas demand inertia has not yet bottomed out, which will limit the price rebound ceiling; From the point of view of inflation, the CPI fall this time is not reflected in inflation expectations, inflation expectations are still around 2.4%, and the current copper price valuation is basically matched.

From the industry perspective, the current supply of partial loose expectations does not reverse, the overall supply will further increase of the August, under the hot weather of east China electricity demand for copper or greater than the supply side, the premium fell near the past decade, go to the library to slow, tired library probability increase, prices rebounded trend or slow, the fundamentals of bullish fermentation or with delivery next week without further hype of the space, We believe that the price rebound trend or suspended, the price into the high range of shock operation posture, and do not change the medium-term pressure trend expectations. The estimated price range is 61000-63500 yuan/ton.