俄罗斯的重税Aluminium Could Threaten US Nickel Supplies

If the United States imposes steep tariffs on Russian aluminum imports, Russia could impose restrictions on exports of key metals such as nickel and palladium, analysts said.

While Russian aluminium supplies in the US are small, nickel is crucial to the aerospace industry and batteries for electric cars. Palladium, meanwhile, is a key component of automotive catalysts for fuel cars.

Nearly 11% of the 92,624 tons of nickel imported into the U.S. last year came from Russia, while 20 tons of palladium from Russia accounted for nearly 35% of U.S. imports, according to statistics provider Trade Data Monitor.

To put pressure on Moscow, the US is considering raising tariffs on Russian aluminium to 200 per cent.

Russia's aluminium, produced by Rusal, accounts for about 6 per cent of global supply.

"There is no real benefit to targeting this trade flow," said Liberum analyst Tom Price. "If such tariffs are imposed, then the market would expect Russia to respond, possibly by placing restrictions on exports of other key metals to the United States."

Such moves are classic trade conflicts.

An analyst at a commodities fund also sees a good chance that Russia will fight back by banning nickel and palladium exports to the US.

U.S. imports of unwrought pressed aluminum and aluminum alloys from Russia reached 191,809 tons, or about 4.4% of last year's total of more than 4.4 million tons, compared with 8.9% in 2018 and 14.6% in 2017, according to the trade data monitor.

"Our view is that a separate US tariff should not have much of an impact on the market as Russian supply into the US has already been reduced," Macquarie analysts said.

"But that could change if sanctions are imposed because of potential spillovers to other regions."

Neither Russian metals nor the Russian companies that produce them have been targeted since last year's conflict with Ukraine.