9月9日，2020年
中国制造业的PMI和美国ISM制造业专家委员会在8月份达到了新的高峰，表明经济稳定的复苏。出于季节性弱点的当前终端消耗的明显特征尚不清楚，但可以出现库存信号。随着目前的全球库存水平低水平和LME铜库存少于90,000吨，上海期货交易所的库存已经开始消耗，无论是在年内，第二次销售的开始还需要进一步确认，但库存变量是铜价高价背后的驱动力。
经济复苏已成为一种趋势
在宏观级别，欧洲，美国和日本都在8月份稳定和反弹。官方的国内制造业PMI在8月份继续改善，蔡新的PMI数据设置了新的高位。国内外需求，制造和非制造需求都是改善，需求的康复是可持续的。
全球供应仍然紧张
根据最新的海关数据，铜进口的月份增加，2020年7月20日，铜浓缩物及其矿石的进口（以下简称铜浓缩物）总计为17.95亿吨（物理吨），同比增长12.6％月份和同比下降13.47％。从1月到2020年7月，进口了1266万吨铜精矿，累计同比增长0.23％。从2020年开始新的皇冠疫情对铜业的影响，2020年3月在3月20日之前的影响是关于供应的影响，因为2月和2月的疫情中心是中国等主要铜消费国家，欧洲和美国。之后，南美洲的流行病爆发，迅速传播，6月份持续峰值，影响了世界上两大铜生产国的运作，包括智利和秘鲁。随着紧急情况的状态和物流改善，积压被释放，因此7月份从智利进口增加。从海外疫情的影响的角度来看，铜矿供应逐渐恢复至5月中旬至晚期的正常。结合运输周期，它已反映在7月份国内铜精矿进口。运输恢复后，将有一定程度的赔偿金。 In September, domestic copper concentrate imports will have a high point.
库存持续走低
上海期货交易所的铜库存为176,800吨，月份增加6800吨;LME铜库存为82,500吨，月份下降6,900吨;COMEX铜库存为75,900短吨，一个月为期20,000吨。世界三大交易所将库存减少2000吨至335,200吨。上海自由贸易区的铜库存增加了6,700吨至239,700吨。整体全球库存上周继续反弹，但整体库存仍然很低。
However, the impact of the sharp drop in LME inventory should not be underestimated, although it may not be the true manifestation of the relationship between supply and demand, but the behavior of moving inventory. However, under the general upward trend, low inventories are conducive to capital squeezing or raising prices.
消费量有季节性的温暖期望
2020年至7月，目前商品房累计销售面积83631万平方米，同比下降5.8%。房地产新开工面积为12031.54平方米，同比下降4.5%。房地产投资75324.61亿韩元，同比增长3.4%。房地产建设面积累计同比增速缓慢，仍处于较低水平;新开工面积累计同比增速收窄，仍为-4.5%。再加上国家重申“不炒房”，三、四线城市库存高企，再加上当前经济形势不容乐观，预计房地产业整体开工意愿有限，而且，这并不支持精炼铜需求的大幅扩张。
According to SMM survey data, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in August was 72.66%, a decrease of 3.50 hundred points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.79% year-on-year. After the operating rate hit a record high in April, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises fell for the fourth consecutive month in August, and also showed negative growth year-on-year. In August, the pressure on the finished product inventory of the copper rod factory increased, and the orders are expected to be pessimistic. The company still has plans to stop production and maintenance in September. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly in September, and the peak season is not busy.
中国汽车工业协会宣布，8月份汽车销量预计环比增长3.2%，同比增长11.3%。其中，商用车同比增长37.5%，重型卡车同比增长7.5%，挖掘机同比增长50%，反映了基础设施和工程建设的强劲增长，铜消费开始回升，需求旺季仍在预期之中。
Through the analysis of various fields of copper downstream terminals, the domestic downstream terminal consumption field does appear off-season phenomenon, and the investment growth rate of the State Grid and power supply has slowed down; but the consumption of automobiles and air-conditioning continues to maintain a double-digit growth rate. We are optimistic that with the arrival of the peak season, consumption will continue to maintain a strong level, and there is still room for growth in the future.
总结一下
全球政策仍处于宽松的一段时间内，对铜价的支持仍然存在。中美游戏仍然是最近宏观市场的热点。
From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of copper mines in South America has gradually recovered from the previous month, supply concerns have eased, and domestic copper imports have also shown a simultaneous rebound; the Shanghai-London price ratio is at a low level, and the import profit window has closed; LME stocks have fallen below 90,000 tons, continuing to set lows. In terms of downstream demand, it will take time for cable consumption to recover, and the domestic automobile sales market recovers better than expected. Pay attention to the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten". On the whole, under the background of low inventory and gradual recovery in demand, copper prices tend to rise but never fall.
